Weinstein Stage Analysis
NO EDGEEvery stock cycles through four stages; buy Stage 2 breakouts above a rising 30-week MA, sell in Stage 3 and short Stage 4 breakdowns.
| THE STRATEGY | $SPX BUY & HOLD | |
|---|---|---|
| Growth a year (CAGR) | 1.9% | 9.0% |
| Return per unit of risk (Sharpe) | 0.23 | 0.66 |
| Worst fall (max drawdown) | -35.5% | -52.6% |
// GROWTH OF $1, LOG SCALE
Tested on years it never saw (from the split): 4.2% a year against 12.4% for the benchmark; Sharpe 0.15 in the training years, 0.34 after.
After 25 bps of trading costs: -0.9% a year. EDGE OVER RANDOM
// DECADE BY DECADE
| ERA | STRATEGY | BENCHMARK |
|---|---|---|
| 1990s | 0.1% | 15.5% |
| 2000s | -2.0% | -2.6% |
| 2010s | 4.6% | 11.6% |
| 2020s | 6.8% | 14.1% |
// THE IDEA, AS PUBLISHED
Stan Weinstein, 'Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets' (1988) · 1988
- Weekly chart: breakout above Stage 1 resistance, price above a flat-to-rising 30-week MA
- Breakout volume well above (about 2x) the recent weekly average
- Relative strength vs the market improving; market and sector favorable
- Stop under the base low, raised over time; sell on a break of the 30-week MA
A real computation on the QuantGPT warehouse, survivorship-free, walk-forward. Gross returns, no costs except where stated. Past performance is not a promise. Findings, not advice. COMPUTED 2026-09-24 20:49 ON THE QUANTGPT WAREHOUSE. COMPANIES THAT LATER DELISTED ARE NOT IN THIS UNIVERSE YET (A FIX IS IN PROGRESS), SO THE RESULT LEANS TOWARD SURVIVORS. FUNDAMENTALS BY FILING DATE. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.