// STUDY RESULT · 1998-01 TO 2026-09

Inspired by Weinstein: Stage Analysis

NO EDGE

Every stock cycles through four stages; buy Stage 2 breakouts above a rising 30-week MA, sell in Stage 3 and short Stage 4 breakdowns.

How this run differs from the source: The 200-day average stands in for the 30-week, and there is no sell on a break of it, the method's exit rule.

	THE STRATEGY	$SPXTR BUY & HOLD
CAGR	1.7%	9.3%
Sharpe ratio	0.24	0.66
Max drawdown	-85.1%	-50.9%

// GROWTH OF $1, LOG SCALE

AMBER: THE STRATEGY · GREY: $SPXTR BUY & HOLD

Out-of-sample (from the split): CAGR -1.1% against 14.0% for the benchmark; Sharpe 0.29 in-sample, 0.17 out-of-sample.

After 25 bps of trading costs: -2.9% a year. BELOW RANDOM

// DECADE BY DECADE

ERA	STRATEGY	BENCHMARK
1990s	75.3%	20.9%
2000s	-11.3%	-0.8%
2010s	5.1%	14.0%
2020s	0.8%	15.2%

// YEAR BY YEAR, LOSING YEARS IN RED

1998*14.2%27.2%

1999198.9%21.0%

2000-55.2%-9.1%

2001-15.7%-11.9%

2002-15.3%-22.1%

200399.4%28.7%

2004-14.5%10.9%

2005-20.9%4.9%

2006-0.7%15.8%

20075.3%5.5%

2008-35.2%-37.0%

20094.7%26.5%

201020.6%15.1%

2011-24.1%2.1%

201231.4%16.0%

201374.3%32.4%

2014-15.3%13.7%

2015-6.3%1.4%

2016-4.8%12.0%

2017-0.7%21.8%

2018-27.9%-4.4%

201939.1%31.5%

202069.2%18.4%

2021-29.5%28.7%

2022-22.3%-18.1%

2023-6.7%26.3%

202415.3%25.0%

202511.5%17.9%

2026*-11.8%11.8%

Losing years: 2000 (-55.2%), 2001 (-15.7%), 2002 (-15.3%), 2004 (-14.5%), 2005 (-20.9%), 2006 (-0.7%), 2008 (-35.2%), 2011 (-24.1%), 2014 (-15.3%), 2015 (-6.3%), 2016 (-4.8%), 2017 (-0.7%), 2018 (-27.9%), 2021 (-29.5%), 2022 (-22.3%), 2023 (-6.7%), 2026 (-11.8%). Each cell: the strategy, then the benchmark below it. * a part year.

// THE IDEA, AS PUBLISHED

Stan Weinstein, 'Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets' (1988) · 1988

Weekly chart: breakout above Stage 1 resistance, price above a flat-to-rising 30-week MA
Breakout volume well above (about 2x) the recent weekly average
Relative strength vs the market improving; market and sector favorable
Stop under the base low, raised over time; sell on a break of the 30-week MA

RUN IT YOURSELF ▸ IN THE LIBRARY

A real computation on the QuantGPT warehouse, walk-forward. A study across the whole market includes only part of the companies that later delisted from 1998 (survivors only before); a study on your own list of tickers is not affected. Gross returns, no costs except where stated. Past performance is not a promise. Findings, not advice. COMPUTED 2026-11-07 08:42 ON THE QUANTGPT WAREHOUSE. COMPANIES THAT LATER DELISTED ARE ONLY PARTLY IN THIS UNIVERSE (A FIX IS IN PROGRESS), SO THE RESULT LEANS TOWARD SURVIVORS. FUNDAMENTALS BY FILING DATE. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PRIVACY