// STUDY RESULT · 1998-01 TO 2026-09

Inspired by Priest and Faber: Shareholder Yield

TRADE-OFF

Dividends plus net buybacks (and, in Priest's version, net debt paydown) measure cash returned to holders better than dividends alone.

How this run differs from the source: Dividends plus buybacks with no net debt paydown, on all liquid stocks rather than the S&P 500.

	THE STRATEGY	$SPXTR BUY & HOLD
CAGR	12.6%	9.3%
Sharpe ratio	0.63	0.66
Max drawdown	-70.1%	-50.9%

// GROWTH OF $1, LOG SCALE

AMBER: THE STRATEGY · GREY: $SPXTR BUY & HOLD

Out-of-sample (from the split): CAGR 11.0% against 14.0% for the benchmark; Sharpe 0.68 in-sample, 0.57 out-of-sample.

After 25 bps of trading costs: 11.6% a year. WITHIN RANDOM

// DECADE BY DECADE

ERA	STRATEGY	BENCHMARK
1990s	4.6%	20.9%
2000s	12.2%	-0.8%
2010s	17.3%	14.0%
2020s	8.9%	15.2%

// YEAR BY YEAR, LOSING YEARS IN RED

1998*11.2%27.2%

19990.3%21.0%

200014.4%-9.1%

200151.2%-11.9%

20025.7%-22.1%

200350.9%28.7%

200431.7%10.9%

20053.2%4.9%

200622.0%15.8%

2007-10.9%5.5%

2008-42.5%-37.0%

200934.9%26.5%

201030.0%15.1%

2011-2.3%2.1%

201233.5%16.0%

201334.3%32.4%

201413.2%13.7%

2015-4.1%1.4%

201613.3%12.0%

201746.5%21.8%

2018-7.6%-4.4%

201933.2%31.5%

202013.5%18.4%

202122.3%28.7%

2022-13.7%-18.1%

202322.1%26.3%

20241.7%25.0%

20257.6%17.9%

2026*6.6%11.8%

Losing years: 2007 (-10.9%), 2008 (-42.5%), 2011 (-2.3%), 2015 (-4.1%), 2018 (-7.6%), 2022 (-13.7%). Each cell: the strategy, then the benchmark below it. * a part year.

// THE IDEA, AS PUBLISHED

Priest & McClelland, Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Yield (2007); Faber, Shareholder Yield (2013) · 2007

Shareholder yield = (dividends + net buybacks + net debt reduction) / market cap
Common variant drops debt paydown
Buy the highest-yield names; rebalance periodically

RUN IT YOURSELF ▸ IN THE LIBRARY

A real computation on the QuantGPT warehouse, walk-forward. A study across the whole market includes only part of the companies that later delisted from 1998 (survivors only before); a study on your own list of tickers is not affected. Gross returns, no costs except where stated. Past performance is not a promise. Findings, not advice. COMPUTED 2026-11-09 22:46 ON THE QUANTGPT WAREHOUSE. COMPANIES THAT LATER DELISTED ARE ONLY PARTLY IN THIS UNIVERSE (A FIX IS IN PROGRESS), SO THE RESULT LEANS TOWARD SURVIVORS. FUNDAMENTALS BY FILING DATE. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PRIVACY