// STUDY RESULT · 1998-01 TO 2026-09

Inspired by O'Neil: CANSLIM

NO EDGE

Growth leaders share seven traits before big runs: current and annual earnings acceleration, new highs/products, tight supply, leadership, institutional sponsorship, and a confirmed market.

How this run differs from the source: No market-direction (M) rule, no base or pivot and no 7 to 8% loss cut; each book is held one month.

	THE STRATEGY	$SPXTR BUY & HOLD
CAGR	7.5%	9.3%
Sharpe ratio	0.44	0.66
Max drawdown	-55.3%	-50.9%

// GROWTH OF $1, LOG SCALE

AMBER: THE STRATEGY · GREY: $SPXTR BUY & HOLD

Out-of-sample (from the split): CAGR 13.3% against 14.0% for the benchmark; Sharpe 0.28 in-sample, 0.64 out-of-sample.

After 25 bps of trading costs: 5.1% a year. WITHIN RANDOM

// DECADE BY DECADE

ERA	STRATEGY	BENCHMARK
1990s	0.0%	20.9%
2000s	-1.6%	-0.8%
2010s	11.4%	14.0%
2020s	18.7%	15.2%

// YEAR BY YEAR, LOSING YEARS IN RED

1998*0.0%27.2%

19990.0%21.0%

2000-8.2%-9.1%

2001-35.0%-11.9%

2002-1.6%-22.1%

200318.0%28.7%

200410.4%10.9%

200535.5%4.9%

200614.9%15.8%

200735.2%5.5%

2008-47.5%-37.0%

20095.2%26.5%

20109.8%15.1%

2011-5.4%2.1%

201224.5%16.0%

201355.6%32.4%

20143.4%13.7%

2015-11.3%1.4%

201610.7%12.0%

201740.0%21.8%

2018-15.4%-4.4%

201917.2%31.5%

202018.9%18.4%

202142.0%28.7%

2022-19.7%-18.1%

202318.2%26.3%

202439.8%25.0%

202535.8%17.9%

2026*3.9%11.8%

Losing years: 2000 (-8.2%), 2001 (-35.0%), 2002 (-1.6%), 2008 (-47.5%), 2011 (-5.4%), 2015 (-11.3%), 2018 (-15.4%), 2022 (-19.7%). Each cell: the strategy, then the benchmark below it. * a part year.

// THE IDEA, AS PUBLISHED

William O'Neil, 'How to Make Money in Stocks' (1988); IBD methodology · 1988

C: quarterly EPS up 25%+ vs the same quarter a year earlier (minimum varies by edition)
A: annual EPS up 25%+ in each of the last 3 years; ROE 17%+
N: new product, management or industry change; price breaking to new highs from a sound base
S: supply and demand: heavy volume on the breakout
L: leader: RS Rating 80+
I: rising institutional sponsorship, including top-performing funds
M: general market in a confirmed uptrend (follow-through day)
Sell: cut any loss at 7-8% below cost

RUN IT YOURSELF ▸ IN THE LIBRARY

A real computation on the QuantGPT warehouse, walk-forward. A study across the whole market includes only part of the companies that later delisted from 1998 (survivors only before); a study on your own list of tickers is not affected. Gross returns, no costs except where stated. Past performance is not a promise. Findings, not advice. COMPUTED 2026-11-09 22:36 ON THE QUANTGPT WAREHOUSE. COMPANIES THAT LATER DELISTED ARE ONLY PARTLY IN THIS UNIVERSE (A FIX IS IN PROGRESS), SO THE RESULT LEANS TOWARD SURVIVORS. FUNDAMENTALS BY FILING DATE. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PRIVACY