// STUDY RESULT · 1990-01 TO 2026-07
Darvas Box
NO EDGEStocks move in stacked 'boxes'; buy the break of the box ceiling at new highs with a stop just below it.
| THE STRATEGY | $SPX BUY & HOLD | |
|---|---|---|
| Growth a year (CAGR) | 1.8% | 9.0% |
| Return per unit of risk (Sharpe) | 0.23 | 0.66 |
| Worst fall (max drawdown) | -24.0% | -52.6% |
// GROWTH OF $1, LOG SCALE
AMBER: THE STRATEGY · GREY: $SPX BUY & HOLD
Tested on years it never saw (from the split): 4.0% a year against 12.4% for the benchmark; Sharpe 0.14 in the training years, 0.36 after.
After 25 bps of trading costs: -1.1% a year. EDGE OVER RANDOM
// DECADE BY DECADE
| ERA | STRATEGY | BENCHMARK |
|---|---|---|
| 1990s | 0.1% | 15.5% |
| 2000s | -1.5% | -2.6% |
| 2010s | 3.4% | 11.6% |
| 2020s | 7.1% | 14.1% |
// THE IDEA, AS PUBLISHED
Nicolas Darvas, 'How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market' (1960) · 1960
- Stocks at new highs on unusual volume, in growth industries with rising earnings
- Box top: a high not exceeded for about 3 days; floor: a low that then holds for about 3 days
- Buy stop just above the box top as price enters a new box
- Stop just below the latest box floor, raised as boxes stack
A real computation on the QuantGPT warehouse, survivorship-free, walk-forward. Gross returns, no costs except where stated. Past performance is not a promise. Findings, not advice. COMPUTED 2026-09-24 19:41 ON THE QUANTGPT WAREHOUSE: EVERY DELISTED NAME KEPT, FUNDAMENTALS AS FILED. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.